The method of socio-technical systems informational stability evaluation at the informational war conditions

Abstract

The method of evaluation of the informational stability of socio-technical systems, which are influenced by specific informational and psychological operations in the information war is presented. The method uses a logical-probabilistic model and a probabilistic measure for evaluating the informational stability of the system. The proposed informational stability measure is based on the concept of minimum unit of information, designed to change human consciousness - a meme and uses probabilistic estimates of occurrence of so-called destructive and compensatory memes, i.e. the meme, used for the informational and psychological operation (reprogramming of the consciousness of the social part of the SLS) and the compensating meme, the use of which minimizes the consequences of the destructive meme. For decision-making with regard to the stability of the social part of the SLS, a flexible scale that can be adapted to any object of research is proposed. An approach to the construction of the so-called vector of stability of the social part of the SLS, which provides a visualization of the derived probabilistic estimates of a violation of confidentiality, integrity and availability, is proposed. The method is of practical interest since it allows considering an actually weakly formalized class of threats - informational and psychological operations, the aim of which is a destructive impact on the social part of the SLS. The proposed method is useful for the decision-making on the management of complex informational security at the enterprise-region-state level.