THE METHOD OF IDENTIFYING THE PARAMETERS OF THE UNIVERSAL MODEL OF FAILURES APPROXIMATING THE GENERALIZED CURVE OF THE FAILURE RATE OF ELECTRONIC PRODUCTS

Abstract

In the process of developing electronic systems at different stages of development, reliability indicators are evaluated with varying degrees of accuracy. Refined calculation of reliability at the stage of detailed design is carried out taking into account operating conditions, environmental factors and actual coefficients of the electrical load of radio elements. The “guidelines for calculating the reliability of devices and systems” currently in force in enterprises consider that all failures of radio elements are considered catastrophic (sudden). This does not take into account the processes of deterioration of elements and deterioration of parameters, that is, the process of gradual failure of radioelements. The resulting reliability estimates are pessimistic (the estimates of reliability indicators are significantly underestimated — evaluation errors range from 30% to 80%), which forces developers to introduce additional unnecessary redundancy into the structure of the designed system. The required number of spare parts for system operation also increases significantly. Therefore, the authors propose a new universal model of failures of products of electronic equipment (hereinafter referred to as radio elements), which takes into account sudden and gradual failures. The universal model is constructed using a composition of exponential and diffusive non-monotonic distribution of failures of radio elements. A method has been developed for determining the parameters of the universal failure model, which allows approximating the generalized curve of the intensity of failures of radio elements (the generalized failure curve of the “reliability bath”). This allows the use of reliability statistics, which are systematized in the “Reliability Guide for Electronic Products (Radio Elements)”. The authors have determined analytical expressions for the probability of trouble-free operation, the distribution function, the distribution density and the failure rate of the universal mathematical model of radio element failures. For practical application, three types of nomograms were developed. The proposed method for determining the parameters of the universal mathematical model of failures of radioelements allows developers: to develop mathematical models of the reliability of electronic systems in the design process, taking into account sudden and gradual failures of elements; to carry out calculations of indicators of reliability, durability of devices and the number of spare parts with high accuracy and reliability; remove excess redundancy in the design of electronic systems; reduce to 30-40 percent the volume of the required number of spare parts for the technical operation of systems.