Abstract
This paper discusses the impact of Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) used during the 1918 pandemic on local death rates and city growth. First, I estimate the impact of Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) as school closures and social distancing on the mortality rate on the medium run in 43 US cities. I show that if the death rate is lower in 1918 it becomes larger during the two next years, probably because the herd immunity is lower, reducing the net benefits of the policy. Second I investigate the impact of NPIs on cities dynamics. I don’t find any significant association between city’s growth and the implementation of NPIs. In a nutshell the results suggest that if NPIs might lower the fatality rate during the pic of the pandemic, their health benefits are fragile on the medium run as cities remain more sensitive to diseases in the following years. This suggests that the optimal policy responses to pandemics should also account for herd immunity.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
