The Mechanisms of Nuclear Crisis Outcomes

Abstract

This chapter examines the effect of nuclear superiority on crisis outcomes in a series of short case studies of the most important nuclear crises of the nuclear era: the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Sino-Soviet Border War, the 1973 Arab-Israeli Crisis, and the Kargil Crisis. The analysis provides strong support for the argument of the book. It illustrates the effect of the nuclear balance of power in specific cases and demonstrates that the causal mechanisms predicted by the theory are in fact in operation. In these cases, it is clear that leaders paid close attention to the nuclear balance of power, nuclear superior states were willing to run greater risks, and nuclear superior states were more likely to achieve their basic goals. Alternative explanations, such as those that maintain nuclear weapons are irrelevant, or that they do not matter above and beyond a secure, second-strike capability, do not find support.