Abstract

The Mechanism of Crowd Stampede Based on Case Statistics through SNA Method

Highlights

  • The advancement of global urbanization has made crowd gathering common [1]

  • This study shows that the social network analysis (SNA) method is feasible in analyzing the mechanism of stampede incidents, simultaneously addressing the shortcomings of the linear statistical model of factors and providing theoretical support for comprehensive control of crowd risk

  • The influencing factors of crowd stampede accidents are grouped into four perspectives: pedestrian, equipment, environment, and management, which are entwined with pedestrian movement and psychological state, crowd monitoring and controlling equipment, dense crowd scene environment, and organizational security management factors

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Summary

INTRODUCTION

The advancement of global urbanization has made crowd gathering common [1]. Many various types of mass emergencies due to pressing crowds have occurred worldwide in recent years, such as the 2014 Shanghai Stampede, the 2015 Saudi Mecca Hajj, and the 2019 Karbala Stampede in Iraq. Current research on crowd stampedes focuses on inducements, such as pedestrian behaviour, psychology, and crowd status, which directly lead to the occurrence of accidents, but the research lacks profound recognition and analysis of management factors and the failure of security facilities. Method, measures the intensity effect of each influencing factor through the degree centrality, and verifies the accuracy of the SNA method via the weight analysis results of historical cases Such an effective mechanism to comprehensively analyze stampede accidents will be conductive to clarifying the focus of risk management for managers. In accordance with the "pedestrian-equipmentenvironment-management" analysis framework, this study conducts conceptual coding of risk factors by investigating a host of typical cases of the past, which can conspicuously reveal and summarize conceptual factors that trigger and evolve crowd trampling accidents.

Centrality Analysis of Influencing Factors Based on SNA Methodology
Establishment of Weighted Influencing Matrix
Matrix Symmetry and Binarization
Indicator Centrality Calculation
C AD n 1
Weight Analysis of Influencing Factors Based on Stampede Accident Statistics
Influencing Factor Centrality
A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 B1 B2 B3 C1
Factor Weight
CONCLUSIONS
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