Abstract
In order to describe probabilities of behaviors under certain expectation of return, the mathematical model of behavior probability is set up. The inputs of the model are expected returns; the outputs of the model are behavior probabilities. In the case of colonies, the behavior probability can be regarded as the proportion of those who take the behaviors. The parameters in the model can be calculated from the data collected. The rational rules and the warps in cognition can be also reflected in the parameters. The model will be helpful in making management policies and designing the institutions, which is meaningful in both practice and theory.
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