The Markovian Pattern of Social Deprivation for Mexicans with Diabetes

José Carlos Ramírez,Leovardo Mata,Francisco Ortiz-Arango

doi:10.3390/math9070780

José Carlos Ramírez, Leovardo Mata + Show 1 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/math9070780

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Abstract

This paper aims to determine the Markovian pattern of the factors influencing social deprivation in Mexicans with Type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2). To this end, we develop a methodology to meet the theoretical and practical considerations involved in applying a Hidden Markov Model that uses non-panel data. After estimating the latent states and ergodic vectors for diabetic and non-diabetic populations, we find that the long-term state-dependent probabilities for people with DM2 show a darker perspective of impoverishment than the rest of the Mexican population. In the absence of extreme events that modify the present probability structure, the Markovian pattern confirms that people with DM2 will most likely become the poorest of Mexico’s poor.

Highlights

Diabetes is a chronic non-communicable disease that occurs when the pancreas does not produce enough insulin, or the body cannot effectively use the insulin it produces
The process does not happen this way because the immune system mistakenly destroys beta cells, or these cells stop releasing the amount of the hormone demanded by the body
This paper addresses both types of considerations when the Hidden Markov model (HMM) uses non-panel data, and the process parameter is a binomial distribution

Summary

Introduction

Diabetes is a chronic non-communicable disease that occurs when the pancreas does not produce enough insulin (type 1), or the body cannot effectively use the insulin it produces (type 2). Insulin is a hormone that allows glucose to enter cells and regulate it in the bloodstream. When this process is normal, beta cells stop producing insulin once blood glucose drops. The process does not happen this way because the immune system mistakenly destroys beta cells (type 1), or these cells stop releasing the amount of the hormone demanded by the body (type 2). Excessive glucose accumulation in diabetic patients’ blood leads to retinopathy, nephropathy, hypertension, amputation of limbs, cardiovascular and neurological disorders, and, in many cases, premature death. The disease’s causes result from genetic and environmental factors, unhealthy lifestyles, and high-risk behaviors [1]

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