The market impacts of US uranium import quotas

Abstract

This study estimates the impacts of import quotas on US uranium mining and nuclear power generation. Under an import quota that ensures a 25 percent market share for domestic US uranium mining (“25 percent quota”), prices for domestic uranium rise 140 percent. The small share of domestic production, however, limits the increase in average prices paid by civilian nuclear plant owners and operators to 21 percent over the period from 2018 to 2022. As a result, nuclear energy sales decline from $106 million to $369 million per year, corresponding with 0.4 and 1.2 percent of the value of nuclear sales respectively. During the first five years, domestic uranium mining revenues increase $4.4 billion while nuclear energy sales decline $1.2 billion. Finally, our analysis of uranium inventory management behavior suggests that if uranium import quotas were adopted, they should remain in place for a minimum of a decade.