The Market for New Ph.D. Economists in 2002

Abstract

A period of malaise in the mid-1990’s led to a contraction in enrollment at many economics Ph.D. programs. The resulting reduction in the supply of new Ph.D. economists, combined with a smaller contraction in demand for new Ph.D. economists, generated, as the Wall Street Journal reported, a “hot pursuit” for some economics Ph.D.’s, with “even low-level candidates [being] treated like big shots” (Jon E. Hilsenrath, 2001 p. B1). As might be expected, the scarcity of new economics Ph.D.’s that materialized at the end of the decade appears to have induced more enrollments in economics Ph.D. programs, with annual matriculations rising by about 25 percent between fall 1998 and fall 2002 (Charles E. Scott and Siegfried, 1999–2003). Predictions for the current job market are mixed. On the one hand, demand may expand as some academic departments whose hiring had been constrained by financial exigency return to active recruiting (Jennifer Jacobson, 2003). On the other hand, the aftermath of the recession continues to limit some public-university budgets at the same time that the supply of new economics Ph.D.’s may start to expand, resulting in a job market for American Ph.D.’s that The Economist (2003 p. 60) describes as “bleak.” Five years ago we reported the results of a comprehensive survey of the labor market for economics Ph.D.’s graduating in 1996 –1997 (Siegfried and Stock, 1999). In contrast to other social-science and science disciplines, most economists who graduated with a doctorate in 1996 –1997 found full-time careertracking jobs that paid well (those in permanent full-time jobs in the United States earned an average starting salary of $61,000). Many of those employed in business and industry, however, were not satisfied with their jobs despite receiving a significant salary premium relative to academics. Here we report results from a new survey of the class of economics Ph.D.’s graduating in 2001–2002. This information should be of interest to current and prospective Ph.D. students, of use to advisors of undergraduates considering graduate study in economics, and of assistance to faculty concerned with the employment prospects of applicants they admit to their doctoral programs. For methodological details consult our earlier report (Siegfried and Stock, 1999).