The Maoist Insurgency in Nepal and the Political Economy of Violence

Abstract

This paper studies the incidence of political violence associated with the Maoist insurgency in Nepal. I take a cross-sectional approach where the unit of analysis is the district, and dependent variable is total killings by state and Maoists normalized by district population. I find no evidence that political and economic grievances are linked to the incidence of political violence. There is also very little evidence that district prosperity or political ideology are associated with the incidence of violence. On the other hand, I find that the intensity of violence was greatest in the Midwestern districts and in districts with low road density. Historical evidence suggests that the dummy variable for Midwestern districts that appears robust and significant reflects the political entrepreneurship of leftist leaders more than half a century ago. The results support a theory of conflict that treats an insurgency as analogous to a profit maximizing firm.