The manipulation of LIBOR and related interest rates

Abstract

Purpose – The “London InterBank Offered Rate” (LIBOR) is one of the most important short-term interest rates with trillions of US dollar in financial products tied to it. Due to recent allegations of manipulation of the LIBOR, this paper aims to investigate the integrity of this rate. Design/methodology/approach – The paper analyzes the LIBOR and its rate fixing process using different screens to detect potential manipulative behavior on the macro and micro level. As main frameworks, an interest rate parity approach and the construction of a theoretical LIBOR using Credit Default Swap (CDSs) are applied. A simulation on the potential impact from one through four banks manipulating the LIBOR is performed as well. Findings – The results on the macro level show that the LIBOR deviates heavily from other short-term interest rates from mid-2007 onwards, reaching its peak in September 2008 with the collapse of Lehman Brothers. On the micro level, the individual submissions of the panel banks are investigated, finding inconsistencies for Barclays and HSBC. Furthermore, a simulation on the influence from potential manipulation under the current calculation method reveals substantial effects on the LIBOR fixing. Even one bank trying to manipulate the fixing has a strong influence on the rate setting. Originality/value – This paper contributes to the academic landscape in that it investigates the LIBOR rate setting process and if irregular behavior can be detected, given the screens used. Due to the findings of conspicuous behavior in the fixing during certain periods, the integrity of the rate setting process is more than questionable.