The Management of Sika Deer Populations in Hyogo Prefecture, Japan

Abstract

We describe the present status of sika (Cervus nippon) deer management in Hyogo Prefecture and our efforts to predict the future trend of sika deer popula- tions and agricultural damage for management options. Using monitoring data from 1999 to 2001 we analyzed the relationships between sika deer density, hunting pressure, and damage to agriculture in Hyogo Prefecture. By regression analysis of the changing rate of a density index, we detected a negative relationship to the den- sity index in the preceding year and proportion of urban area of the landscape and a positive relationship to neighboring deer abundance and proportion of agricultural area. Amount of agricultural damage was correlated to deer abundance, proportion of area in forest plantation, and the amount of boundary between cultivated lands and forests. These variables for the area within 2.5 km distance of focal cultivated land explained the amount of damage better than those within 5 km distance. Then, using the derived formula, we could predict the future trend of deer population according to harvesting plans. If 10,000 deer per year were harvested (approxi- mately the harvest in 2001), the deer density and agricultural damages would not be reduced. Even harvesting 20,000 deer for a few years does not seem to reduce the population under the target population of the management plan. The accuracy of this model was examined by comparing the prediction to the monitoring data in the next year. Finally, we discuss the contribution of our effort to the advancement of deer management.