The Making of Radical‐Right Voters: Persuasion and Contrast Effects in a Dynamic Political Context

Abstract

Under what circumstances do first‐time radical‐right party (RRP) voters become more identified with the right‐wing label? Also, when do they perceive the center‐right party as more left wing and evaluate it more negatively? To answer these two intertwined questions, this article leverages the dynamic political context of Germany during the 2013–17 election cycle. In this election cycle, the political arena became abruptly polarized, as the refugee crisis took place and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) broke into 13 subnational parliaments. Using a unique longitudinal dataset, I find that first‐time AfD voters experienced a persuasion effect in such a polarized environment, as they became slightly more right wing. In addition, I find a contrast effect among these voters, as they came to perceive the Christian Democratic Union as more left wing and judged it more negatively. These findings have important implications for understanding the psychological processes of first‐time RRP voters in a multiparty system, as they show how a polarized environment can shape RRP voters' ideological identity and motivate them to see the mainstream center‐right party as an outgroup.