The Main Trends and Consequences of Deepening Imbalances in the Labor Sphere During the First Six Months of Martial Law in the Country

Abstract

The article is devoted to the systematization of the main directions of imbalance in the labor sphere, which arose during the introduction of martial law, and to the determination of the loss of labor and educational potential, human capital during the analyzed period. The main reasons for deepening imbalances in the employment sphere and in the system of social and labor relations are substantiated. The description of new challenges, threats and risks caused by the drop in employment and the increase in unemployment, including hidden unemployment, is given. The reasons for the discrepancy in estimates of the number of refugees and internally displaced persons are named, and a forecast estimate of the loss of jobs in various scenarios of military actions is given. Attention is focused on the growing crisis of the social protection system of the population as a result of rising costs and a significant reduction in income. The volumes of irreversible losses of labor and educational potential during the period of military aggression of Russia and military events in Ukraine were determined and quantified. Loss calculations are based on preliminary estimates of the number of dead servicemen and civilians, refugees and forced deportees, their average life expectancy at working age taking into account levels of economic activity, during the period of military aggression, expert assessments of the probability of non-return of refugees and deportees as of May-June 2022 . An approach to quantifying the volume of temporary losses of labor potential is proposed, which is based on information regarding the number of internally displaced persons who have lost their full-time or temporary work, the number of those who have left the country, taking into account their employment level, the number of unemployed, including the number of representatives of hidden unemployment, and the number of lost jobs during the period of military aggression. Estimates of resource losses in the labor sphere make it possible to develop the necessary stabilization programs in the labor market and in the system of social and labor relations, to determine and implement compensatory mechanisms for overcoming the imbalance of the labor sphere and ensuring its stability. Keywords imbalances in the labor sphere, martial law, educational potential, labor potential, refugees, irreversible losses, temporary losses of labor potential.