The macroeconomic content of analyst news during economic crises and bailouts

Abstract

This study examines the macroeconomic content of financial analysts’ news conditional on the state of the economy. The study analyses data from major markets in the Eurozone from 2005 to 2018, a period that includes an economic exuberance phase, followed by a global crisis that led to the application of economic adjustment programmes for several countries. The empirical findings show that analysts incorporate a positive association between expected GDP growth and corporate earnings growth, primarily driven by the investment component of GDP growth. The informativeness of macro expectations for analysts’ news increases as macroeconomic revisions are released, except for the crisis-bailout period, when analysts respond to macro revisions earlier in the horizon but systematically overreact to them. Analysts’ news is value relevant during the crisis-bailout period, with increased relevance for timely forecasts.