The Macroeconomic Consequences Of Firearm-Related Fatalities In OECD Countries, 2018-30: A Value-Of-Lost-Output Analysis.

Abstract

We modeled gross domestic product (GDP) losses attributable to firearm-related fatalities in each of thirty-six Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries using the value-of-lost-output approach from 2018 to 2030. There are three categories of firearm-related fatalities: physical violence, self-harm, and unintentional injury. We project that the thirty-six OECD countries will lose $239.0billion in cumulative GDP from 2018 to 2030 from firearm-related fatalities. Most of these losses ($152.5billion) will occur as a result of fatalities in the US. In 2030 alone, the OECD countries will collectively lose $30.4billion (0.04percent) of their estimated annual GDP from firearm-related fatalities. The highest relative losses will occur in Mexico and the US; the lowest will occur in Japan. Firearm-related fatalities are expected to disproportionately affect the US and Mexican economies. Across the OECD, 48.5percent of economic losses will be attributable to physical violence, 47.0percent to self-harm, and 4.6percent to unintentional injury. These findings provide a more complete picture of the toll of firearm-related fatalities, a global public health crisis that, without intervention, will continue to impose significant economic losses across OECD countries.