The Lyman Normal Tissue Complication Probability Model and Risk Prediction for Temporal Lobe Injury after Re-Irradiation in Patients with Recurrent Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

Abstract

The risk of temporal lobe injury (TLI) in recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma (rNPC) patients with intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) is high. We aimed to construct the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model for TLI of rNPC and establish a risk predictive model. We retrospectively analyzed 103 patients with rNPC who had received two courses of IMRT in our institution. The 206 temporal lobes (TLs) of these patients were randomly divided into a training (n = 144) and validation group (n = 62). We determined the mean value of the following parameters to construct the Lyman NTCP model: TD50(1) (the dose with a 50% probability of complications to an organ when all volumes are irradiated), m [steepness of the dose-response at TD50(1)], and n (the parameter related to volume effect). The most predictive dosimetric parameter and clinical variables were integrated in Cox proportional hazards models. A nomogram was developed for predicting risk of TLs. The parameters of the fitted NTCP model were TD50(1) = 107.84 Gy (95% confidence interval (CI), [97.15, 118.54]), m = 0.16 (95% CI, [0.14, 0.19]), and n = 0.04 (95% CI, [0.01, 0.06]). The cumulative dose delivered to 0.1 cm3 of temporal lobe volume (D0.1cc-c) was the most predictive dosimetric parameter for TLI. The Kaplan-Meier curves showed a significant difference in 2-year TLI-free survival among different risk groups according to the total score of nomograms. The TD50(1) of TLI in patients with rNPC is 107.84 Gy in Lyman NTCP model. The nomogram model can accurately predict the risk of TLI for individual.