The luminous intensity of regional ‘night-light’ output can predict the growing volume of published scientific research by ‘luminaries’ in developing countries

Abstract

Global scientific research output has experienced continuous and rapid growth during the last 20 years. The spatial and temporal variations of the international papers at the national and regional scales were analyzed by combining the remotely sensed nighttime light data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's Operational Linescan System. The findings indicate that the publication of international-circulation scientific papers in most of the countries examined have experienced a trend of exponential increase which can be positively correlated with nighttime light in those counties or regions. Furthermore, the developing countries have higher correlation coefficients than the developed countries. Thus, literal nighttime light data can potentially be used in future to better predict the number of publications of the research of figurative `luminaries' residing in developing countries.