The low fertility rate is the major demographic risk in China

Abstract

In this paper, I argue that China's population has retained a low fertility rate for 20 years. However, population research has failed to raise sufficient awareness on this major change over a long period of time. As it is proven by the data from the Sixth National Population Census in China, birth rate level and fertility level both have been seriously overestimated in the past, while population aging process has been underestimated at the same time. China has repeatedly failed to achieve its goals in population development plans by large gaps. Results in population forecast and simulation indicate that the main problem of China's population in the twenty-first century has already shifted from the excessive growth of total population to the issue of population age structure. Population over-aging becomes a serious problem that looms large over the country's future. The biases in the publicity on population theories and in relevant estimation and forecast in the past prohibited the correct understanding on China's general population trend. This mistake causes seriously low fertility rate in China and will bring population risks of too few children and over-aging in the future.