The long-term variations of ozone, UV-radiation and temperature in tropostratosphere and their connection with solar variability

Abstract

The long-term variations of the total column ozone amount, temperature in tropostratophere, UV-radiation above Kyrgyzstan and solar activity are analyzed. The deviations of monthly average meanings of UV-radiation from norm are presented, the anomaly periods are allocated. These data are analyzed for 22 and 23 cycles of 11-year solar activity. The parameters of solar activity such as the variations of sunspot numbers, their century amplitudes and their deviations, and also short-term deviations from smoothed 11-year's variations are analyzed. The reasons of increase of temperature in lower atmosphere connected with natural and antropogeneous factors and the existing forecasts of climate change are discussed [1,2]. The connection between variability of solar activity for the period from 1950 up to 2006 including 18-23 cycles of 11-year solar activity and the forecast of solar variability till 2060 and basic climate making parameters of atmosphere such as ozone variations, ultra-violet radiation, and temperature of tropostratosphere is analyzed. It is supposed that the significant decrease of solar activity level can result essential changes of temperature regime in troposphere. The high level of correlation between solar flair activity and UV-radiation is revealed. The increase of UV-radiation level takes place in periods of increasing of solar flair activity. The analysis of long-term changes of temperature regime of the lower stratosphere at levels 16 and 22 km has shown, that the total decrease of temperature corresponds to total decrease of ozone concentration. Thus the sharp changes of ozone concentration correspond to sharp decrease of temperature. In troposphere in this period the constant increase of temperature is observed. This fact illustrates a principle of compensation of atmospheric processes.