The long-term evolutionary pathway of Beijing's energy system towards carbon neutrality

Abstract

Promoting the low-carbon transition of urban energy system is one of the vital initiatives to achieve China's carbon neutrality target, and Beijing, as a national low-carbon pilot city, needs to accelerate the green and low-carbon energy transition to facilitate high-quality economic and social development. This study develops a LEAP-Beijing model and sets up a baseline and acceleration scenario to explore medium and long-term energy consumption and carbon emission trends in Beijing. The simulation results show that the final energy consumption structure in Beijing will continue to be improved and the electrification level will steadily increase, reaching 76% by 2060 under the accelerated scenario. Total energy consumption will peak in the period 2030–2035 and decline to 49.91 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) in 2060 under the baseline scenario, and 47.19 Mtce in the acceleration scenario. Beijing's total CO2 emissions will peak and then steadily decline during 2021–2025, with an accelerated decline after 2030. Under the acceleration scenario, a certain proportion of natural gas will still be used for power and heat generation in 2060, with related carbon dioxide emissions of about 18 million tons. This part of carbon emissions can be removed through carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) and forest carbon sinks. Finally, policy recommendations are provided in four areas: improving the institutional mechanism for green and low-carbon energy development, upgrading the industrial structure, enhancing electricity substitution and strengthening technological innovation.