Abstract
Will China democratize? If so, how soon? Relying on classical modernization theory and observations of China’s extraordinary economic growth, many prominent scholars have recently predicted that China is destined for a “short march” to democracy over the next decade. This article problematizes such predictions. I replicate the prominent forecast model used by Henry Rowen and show that even such classical modernization models of democratic transitions actually do not predict democracy in China before 2030–35 at the earliest. I also survey major reasons to think that China’s march to democracy will be a very long march, not a short one.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
