The Longer-Run Prospects for the U.S. Balance of Payments

Abstract

, Everyone knows that we have been having trouble with our balance of international payments for a number of years. The press is full of the question, and administration officials comment on it frequently. Yet the situation continues to be serious, has at times had an adverse effect on the implementation of our internal economic policies, and in my view is unlikely to cure itself automatically in the near-by future. On the contrary, I think that unless drastic new control measures are taken, the probabilities are that our payments position will deteriorate still further, and that ultimately we may even be thrown into a major foreign-exchange crisis. Except for unemployment, this is probably the most urgent economic problem that confronts us today. The purpose of this paper is to present the main facts and apparent prospects that lead to these disquieting conclusions, and to appraise the possible solutions.