Abstract
The projection of surface runoff in the context of climate change is important to the rational utilization and distribution of water resources. This study did a case study in regions above Danjiangkou in Hanjiang River Basin. A basin scale hydrological model was built based on macroscale processes of surface runoff and water-energy balance. This model can describe the quantity relationship among climatic factors, underlying surface and surface runoff. Driven by hypothetical climatic scenarios and climate change dataset coming from CMIP5, the climate change impacts on surface runoff in the regions above Danjiangkou in Hanjiang River Basin can be addressed. The results showed that: (1) Compared with other distributed hydrological models, the hydrological model in this study has fewer parameters and simpler calculation methods. The model was good at simulating annual surface runoff. (2) The surface runoff was less sensitivity to climate change in the regions above Danjiangkou in Hanjiang River Basin. A 1°C increase in temperature might results in a surface runoff decrease of 2~5% and a 10% precipitation increase might result in a streamflow increase of 14~17%. (3) The temperature across the Fu River Basin were projected to increase by 1.4~2.3°C in 1961 to 1990 compared with that in 1961 to 1990. But the uncertainty existed among the projection results of precipitation. The surface runoff was excepted to decrease by 1.3~23.9% without considering the climate change projected by NorESM1-M and MIROC-ESM-CHEM, which was much different from other GCMs.
Highlights
According to IPCC AR5, since the last century, most places in the world has been suffering climate change whose main characteristic is global warming
Since the dominant factor of water cycle will differ as the time scale differs
Due to the significant difference of climatic and under surface characteristics of different basins in China, it is of great difficulty to establish one hydrological model which is universal in China and in the meantime could reflect regional characteristics[15]
Summary
According to IPCC AR5, since the last century, most places in the world has been suffering climate change whose main characteristic is global warming. The projection of the surface runoff variation in the context of climate change will provide scientific proof for the planning management, development and utilization and ecological environment protection of water resources[4], and it has become a hot spot and frontier issue[5-7]. Under surface data, water intake and use data and project scheduling data are all needed[16] This kind of refined hydrological model can be used in typical basin and region, but is hard to be widely promoted in large region. With the aid of the output of CMIP5, future surface runoff in the study area has been projected, so as to provide reliable scientific proof for the planning design, development and utilization and operation management of water resources system in the regions above Danjiangkou in Hanjiang River Basin
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