The Long-Term Impact of Famine Experience on Harvest Losses

Abstract

Approximately one-third of the global food supply is lost or wasted each year. Given that the harvesting process is the initial stage following food production, minimizing losses in this crucial phase holds paramount significance in augmenting the food supply and ensuring food security. The 1959–1961 famine in China was one of the most catastrophic events in history and had long-term effects on human beings, particularly farmers. This paper aims to provide a new perspective on the variations in harvest losses across age cohorts by examining the impact of famine experiences. Using survey data from the 2016 Postproduction Food Loss and Waste Survey conducted by China Agricultural University and the Rural Economic Research Center, which involved 3538 farming households across 28 provinces, we construct a cohort difference-in-difference (DID) model to investigate the impact of famine experience on household harvest losses. The standard cohort DID estimation results indicate that in areas with severe famine, a 1% increase in excess mortality would reduce the rate of harvest loss by 3%, suggesting that farmers who have experienced extreme famine have a deeper memory of the event, which subsequently helps them reduce harvest losses. Moreover, the results of the heterogeneity test reveal that the more serious the famine that the household head experienced in early life was, the less harvest losses there were, particularly for those who were adolescents during the famine. The findings elucidate the importance of historical events in shaping current behaviors and contribute to a better understanding of the variation in harvest losses across age cohorts.