Abstract
BackgroundWhile the direct (medical) costs of arthritis are regularly reported in cost of illness studies, the 'true' cost to indivdiuals and goverment requires the calculation of the indirect costs as well including lost productivity due to ill-health.MethodsRespondents aged 45-64 in the ABS Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers 2003, 2009 formed the base population. We projected the indirect costs of arthritis using Health&WealthMOD2030 – Australia’s first microsimulation model on the long-term impacts of ill-health in older workers – which incorporated outputs from established microsimulation models (STINMOD and APPSIM), population and labour force projections from Treasury, and chronic conditions trends for Australia. All costs of arthritis were expressed in real 2013 Australian dollars, adjusted for inflation over time.ResultsWe estimated there are 54,000 people aged 45-64 with lost PLYs due to arthritis in 2015, increasing to 61,000 in 2030 (13% increase). In 2015, people with lost PLYs are estimated to receive AU$706.12 less in total income and AU$311.67 more in welfare payments per week than full-time workers without arthritis, and pay no income tax on average. National costs include an estimated loss of AU$1.5 billion in annual income in 2015, increasing to AU$2.4 billion in 2030 (59% increase). Lost annual taxation revenue was projected to increase from AU$0.4 billion in 2015 to $0.5 billion in 2030 (56% increase). We projected a loss in GDP of AU$6.2 billion in 2015, increasing to AU$8.2 billion in 2030.ConclusionsSignificant costs of arthritis through lost PLYs are incurred by individuals and government. The effectiveness of arthritis interventions should be judged not only on healthcare use but quality of life and economic wellbeing.
Highlights
While the direct costs of arthritis are regularly reported in cost of illness studies, the 'true' cost to indivdiuals and goverment requires the calculation of the indirect costs as well including lost productivity due to ill-health
The aim of this study was to project the indirect costs of arthritis due to lost productive life years (PLYs) – defined as the number of people not in the labour force who would have been in the labour force were it not for their arthritis in a given year [12] – from 2015 to 2030 using a microsimulation model
Statistical analysis We present a summary of the number of people with and without lost PLYs due to arthritis, and the mean and median income, welfare payments and taxes paid per week by people aged 45-64 years in 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030
Summary
While the direct (medical) costs of arthritis are regularly reported in cost of illness studies, the 'true' cost to indivdiuals and goverment requires the calculation of the indirect costs as well including lost productivity due to ill-health. While YLDs and other measures of disease burden are useful for evaluating and setting health policy, the indirect costs of chronic diseases are important, and for health policy but related policy areas e.g. employment, finance and social security. Together, these measures provide vital information for modern governments in their pursuit of cross-portfolio solutions to complex health and social issues [2,3,4]. It is widely acknowledged that investing in health contributes to the objectives of “smart, sustainable and inclusive growth” [4]
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