THE LONG-TERM CHANGES OF EMISSION DRIVING FORCES IN EUROPEAN POWER AND HEAT SECTOR AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE DECARBONIZATION PATHWAYS IN EU ENERGY SECTOR SINCE 1990

Abstract

The Public Electricity and Heat Production (PEHP) is the most emissive sector in European economy. The characteristic features of PEHP contribute to the importance of its mitigation role. In this study, the decarbonization potential of energy sector was retrospectively analyzed. Proposed algorithm contained, at the first layer, the year-by-year data analysis and calculation while at the second graphical interpretation and pattern grouping. Despite the double-layering, the developed approach included the three following stepwise stages: the CO2 emission alternatives scenarios pathways methodology, the CO2 emission driving forces modes and influence weight methodology, and the transformation pattern identifying and grouping. Based on 1990–2017 CO2 emission inventories, the investigation of long-term PEHP decarbonization in 26 European countries was performed, in year-by-year and country-by-country processing. All results and findings have become the foundation for describing achieved decarbonization goals and 27 years mitigation ways. The Energy Consumption (EC) and Emission Factor (EF) have been pointed as a key driving forces of CO2 emission and as a key development indicator of PEHP sectoral transformation structure. Based on the developed country-by-country graphical interpretation interface, the five key patterns of PEHP decarbonization processes in European countries were observed and defined. The algorithm which has been applied and tested in 26 countries for 27 years was proved to be a universal and flexible tool to determine the lack of a utilitarian path of PEHP CO2 emission mitigation in Europe.