The long farewell from Bac’ka

Abstract

For a long time, the President of Belarus enjoyed the support of large sections of the population in his country. However, in recent years, his voter base has eroded as the economic and social capacity of the “Belarusian model” with which he is identified has started to reach its limits. In addition, the normative foundations of this model are regarded as being unattractive by many voters who grew up after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Even so, the extent of Lukashenka’s presumptive electoral defeat and the mass protests that ensued are surprising. They can only be explained in terms of the dynamic that evolved from the coincidence of unforeseeable circumstances with equally unforeseeable decisions made by the various players involved.