The Logic of Structure-Based Counterfactuals

Abstract

And the Lord said, “If I find in the city of Sodom fifty good men, I will pardon the whole place for their sake.” Genesis 18:26 Preface This chapter provides a formal analysis of structure-based counterfactuals , a concept introduced briefly in Chapters 1 and 3 that will occupy the rest of our discussion in this book. Through this analysis, we will obtain sharper mathematical definitions of other concepts that were introduced in earlier chapters, including causal models, action, causal effects, causal relevance, error terms, and exogeneity. After casting the concepts of causal model and counterfactuals in formal mathematical terms, we will demonstrate by examples how counterfactual questions can be answered from both deterministic and probabilistic causal models (Section 7.1). In Section 7.2.1, we will argue that policy analysis is an exercise in counterfactual reasoning and demonstrate this thesis in a simple example taken from econometrics. This will set the stage for our discussion in Section 7.2.2, where we explicate the empirical content of counterfactuals in terms of policy predictions. Section 7.2.3 discusses the role of counterfactual in the interpretation and generation of causal explanations. Section 7.2 concludes with discussions of how causal relationships emerge from actions and mechanisms (Section 7.2.4) and how causal directionality can be induced from a set of symmetric equations (Section 7.2.5). In Section 7.3 we develop an axiomatic characterization of counterfactual and causal relevance relationships as they emerge from the structural model semantics.