The logic of Probabilistic risk assessment versus decision levels

Abstract

The emergence of risk analysis in relation to technological development is traced. The logical foundations of Probabilistic Risk Assessment as it is currently structured are examined and discussed with respect to levels of decision making and to the nature of different risks. It is shown that the static and synoptic nature of the PRA model is adequate for decision contexts which focus on technical content but inadequate for higher level decisions. Finally, six questions proposed for consideration by a SMiRT panel on decision-making are addressed.