The logic of China–US rivalry

Abstract

Behind the struggle and game between China and the United States are four sets of overlapping and mutually causal logics, namely the growth and decline of the two countries’ strength, ideological differences, changes in the international environment, and domestic political influence. Sino–US relations will not be able to return to the depth of exchanges and level of cooperation at the beginning of the twenty-first century for a long time. However, the long-term interests and strategic considerations of the two countries determine that the two countries must avoid war with each other and maintain a certain degree of economic cooperation and social exchanges. The biggest uncertainty in Sino–US relations in 2024 is the chaos that may be caused by domestic political struggles in the United States. However, the official and non-governmental contacts between China and the United States since 2023 have made the upper limit of the development of bilateral relations and the bottom line of conflict clearer. Sino–US relations are difficult to improve, but they are expected to be basically stable.