The Localized Geographies of Violence in the North Caucasus of Russia, 1999–2007

Abstract

The second Chechen war, starting in the North Caucasus in August 1999, shows few signs of a ceasefire after eleven years, although the level of violence has declined from the peaks of the war's first two years. Initially framed by both sides as a war of separatists versus the federal center, the situation is now complicated by the installation of a Moscow ally into power in Chechnya and by the splintering of the opposition into groups with diverse aims and theaters of operation. The main rebel movement has declared the establishment of an Islamic caliphate in all the Muslim republics of the North Caucasus as its ultimate goal. Fears of regional destabilization of the entire North Caucasus of Russia are propelled by reports of increased militant activism in republics adjoining Chechnya due to possible contagion effects of violence in these poor areas. Temporal and spatial descriptive statistics of a large database of 14,177 violent events, geocoded by precise location, from August 1999 to August 2007, provide evidence of the conflict's diffusion into the republics bordering Chechnya. “Hot spots” of violence are identified using Kulldorff's SaTScan statistics. A geographically weighted regression predictive model of violence indicates that locations in Chechnya and forested areas have more violence, whereas areas with high Russian populations and communities geographically removed from the main federal highway through the region see less violence.