The load forecasting technology in the electric power distribution system

Abstract

The authors proposed a method for creating a prediction model for dynamically predicting the load curve in a power distribution system whose composition varied day by day, and then validated its effectiveness for comparisons with measured current values. In the results, the authors divided power distribution lines into interval increments using the contract power category composition ratio and then created a prediction model for various interval patterns based on the substantial dependence of the consumer load curve on contract type. Furthermore, when confirming the prediction precision using their model, the authors found that the absolute average error was 7.7 A, with 95% within 30 A. The relative average error rate was confirmed at 9.6%. Upon systematizing the current value prediction method and performing opinion surveys and evaluations of users running trials in the power distribution system operation business, the authors were able to confirm that the prediction precision of their method was sufficient for the system's needs. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Electr Eng Jpn, 153(2): 14–27, 2005; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/eej.20146