THE LINK BETWEEN UNEMPLOYMENT AND THE MARRIAGE RATE: BUENOS AIRES, ARGENTINA, 1980-1999

Abstract

1980-99 period in Argentina was characterized by an extraordinary increase in unemployment rate, for both male and females, and an increase in women labor force participation. At same time, especially since 1 990, marriage rate shows a remarkable decrease. This phenomenon has been more evident among young population and most of substitution was away from marriage and toward consensual union and single. For instance, percentage of married women between ages of 17 and 29 decreased from 37% in 1980 to 16% in 1999. On other hand, percentage of single women and women in consensual union increased from 54% and 5% to 68% and 14% respectively. These changes are remarkable, specially taking into account thatAigentina introduced divorce law in 1987, which decreased cost of marriage engagement. One tempting explanation to decrease in marriage rate could be based on changes in or preferences among young population. For example, one of most important newspapers in Argentina said: The specialists see in this crisis of marriage a denunciation of social institutions of modernity, the stereotype of perfect family, idea that one gets married to have children immediately, conjugal fidelity that, in most cases, was a lie because it was not fulfilled, enumerates Loyacono, president of Argentine Society of Family Therapy. And in every denunciation there is an attempt of transformation, wishes to change rules of game. 16/12/01, Clarin. This article evaluates two possible explanations: first hypothesis is that a change in social rules or values, or in some unobservable factor, was driving force behind this phenomena, and second is that declining labor market opportunities for young people resulted in a reduction in gains of marriage, therefore a decline in marriage rate. In order to evaluate these explanations, we estimate a multi-logit model for young women marriage decision using micro-data from Area Metropolitana and Gran Buenos Aires, for 1 9801 999 period.