The Limits of Presidential Popularity as a Source of Influence in the U. S. House

Abstract

This note tests hypotheses which predict that the president's popularity with the public has a different impact on support from House members of his own party than it has on members of the opposition. With ideological conflict held constant, we find that, as presidential popularity increases, the president tends to receive more support from House members of his party and less support from members of the opposition. We also find that the positive impact that presidential popularity has on the president's partisans is greater than the negative impact it has on members of the opposition. Thus, favorable public opinion may not influence Congress to approve more of the president's proposals in all situations. If the president's party controls Congress, then favorable public opinion may improve his rate of success because he gains support from members of his party at a faster rate than he loses support from members of the opposition. However, if the opposition party controls Congress, then favorable public opinion may not improve the president's success.