The Limits of Low-Tax Social Democracy? Welfare, Tax and Fiscal Dilemmas for Labor in Government

Abstract

The Australian Labor Party, following its election to government in 2007, has implemented an ambitious social policy agenda with spending on hospitals, pensions and community workers, as well as programs for parental leave and disability. It has also reformed taxes, in part to finance these reforms, implementing the mining and carbon taxes in 2012. Labor, however, has difficulty avoiding deficits because tax revenues are too low to finance expanded welfare. This article explores the political constraints and opportunities involved in financing welfare by examining voter responses to the ANU Poll of September 2011. Spending on welfare is supported by low-income earners, while taxing big industries finds greater support among university-educated voters. The article advances an explanation for this mismatch and for why tax resistance has hindered Labor's efforts to finance welfare expansion.澳大利亚工党在2007年选举上台后实施了雄心勃勃的社会政策计划，涉及医院、养老金、社区工作人员、带薪育婴假、残疾人等项开支。它还在2012年改革了税收，推行采矿及碳排放税为上述改革筹集资金。不过，工党苦于避免赤字，因为税收太少，资助不了扩大的福利。本文分析了选民对2011年9月ANU民调的回应，探讨了资助福利之举的限制与机遇。低收入者支持福利开支，受过高等教育者则多支持向大企业征税。本文解释了这种矛盾，以及为什反税收阻碍了工党资助福利扩张的努力。