The limits of issue entrepreneurship: How the German Greens failed to win in 2021

Abstract

In this article, we propose a new framework to study the success of Green parties that links a consideration set logic with a valence approach. We argue that issue entrepreneurship explains when voters start considering Green parties and thus if they win some initial seats, yet it is the party’s perceived competence that explains whether larger numbers of voters who consider the Greens end up voting for them. Using panel data from the German Longitudinal Election Study, we show that finding the climate important is essential to consider the Greens during the 2021 general election campaign. However, because their candidate Annalena Baerbock was perceived as less competent, these considerations did not translate into votes. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of when Green parties can or cannot attract larger numbers of voters.