The Limitations of Groundwater Models

Abstract

The ability of groundwater models to accurately predict the behavior of groundwater flow in real-world situations is poor. At best groundwater models, despite their high degree of precision, are qualitative predictors of future behavior. A major cause of the lack of accuracy is the severe discrepancy between the scale of measurement necessary to understand aquifer parameters for accurate modeling and the scale of measurement generally made under the constraints of limited time and limited budgets. In teaching groundwater modeling, it is important that students be made aware of the shortcomings of modeling. Undoubtedly, any model they create will be an extreme idealization of nature and will be nonunique. A nonunique model is one that inherently possesses error. Given these shortcomings, the worth of modeling in making planning decisions can only be derived from analysis of qualitative trends in the overall results.