The limitations of end-of-life copper recycling and its implications for the circular economy of metals

Abstract

Increasing the recycling of metals reaching their end-of-life (EoL) is a vital circular economy approach to meet the growing demand for metals and reduce reliance on mining. To assess the potential of recycling strategies in fulfilling future metal demand and replacing primary production, we develop a novel dynamic probabilistic material flow analysis (MFA) model. Unlike previous MFA studies, our model explicitly explores the potential of recycling to reduce metal mining activities while considering uncertainties in future EoL collection and recycling rates. Focusing on copper, a critical mineral for low-carbon technologies, the model dynamically estimates the future copper stocks and flows under three different demand scenarios and probabilistic EoL collection and recycling assumptions. Our analysis reveals that the share of EoL secondary supply of overall copper demand, which currently stands at 23 %, will even under the scenario with the lowest future copper demand only be averaging 33.4 % over the next three decades. In addition, even under the most optimistic circumstances with lower than expected copper demand and very high collection and recycling rate growth, the annual share of EoL secondary supply of overall copper demand would only reach 49.6 % in 2050. Thus, primary copper extraction is expected to rise significantly until at least 2040 and under 87 % of all 30,000 modelled outcomes, primary production of copper in 2050 will still be above 2020 production levels. Consequently, we emphasise the need for alternative circular economy strategies beyond recycling, such as demand reduction and mitigating the harmful impacts of primary metal production.