The limitations of analytical approach to the seaports’ technological design

Abstract

The paper considers key limitations of methods used in the technological design of seaports. It is represented in the article that the methodological reason of these limits is based in the standards of technological design of seaports. Authors prove that the methods used in standards of technological design allow to evaluate the number of a port's resources in the worst case. The worst case means the month of a seaport's activity when the cargo flow is high and the meteorological situation is the hardest one. The methods do not allow to provide a precise analysis of different conditions of port's activity. At the same time, port's owners and operators need to have such possibility: to provide a sensitivity analysis and forecasts of decisions that they make. This analysis usually includes research of different scenarios of port's activity. The scenarios are described not in a static form, but in a dynamic one, when particular events cane happen on any step of the port's activity. It is stated in the paper that standard of seaports’ technological design does not allow to provide an analysis sufficiently flexible for the goals of port owners and operators. At the same time, these limitations are not usual to simulation modelling, which is based on the detailed development of methods of resources’ calculations. The simulations modelling considers particular specifications of ports’ operations in different scenarios. Authors prove that it is very important for the ports of Artic zones to provide the analysis of different meteorological scenarios. It is also stated that this analysis can provided only with simulation modelling.