Abstract
The maximum likelihood of the expressed willingness of Americans to vote for a black for president has not been adequately determined. By employing the probit technique, this paper attempts to determine the possible ranges of probability that Americans would be willing to vote for a black for president. Based on various models from which the probabilities are calculated, it is found that group‐based racial consciousness is the main determinant of the likelihood that Americans will express their willingness to vote for a black for president. However, this effect is mediated by schooling, political identification, attitudes towards various racial questions, and region. These may be seen as instrumental variables that anticipate the type of Americans who would be mostly likely willing to do so.
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