The Likelihood of Becoming and Remaining Unemployed in Great Britain, 1984

Abstract

There has been much discussion recently of unemployment as a dynamic phenomenon; with substantial flows on and off the unemployment register taking place within the context of a relatively stable level of unemployment at the national level. Policy makers, however, have tended to ignore flows, concentrating instead on local variations in unemployment rates; thus disregarding the fact that areas with similar unemployment rates may have different types of unemployment problem. Using Department of Employment data on unemployment flows for 1984, this paper investigates spatial variations in the likelihood of becoming unemployed and remaining unemployed amongst local labour market areas (LLMAs) in Great Britain. Cluster analysis is used to identify LLMAs with similar on-flow and off-flow experiences and thus to establish the major patterns of inter-relationship between on-flow and off-flow rates across the country. To aid interpretation of geographical patterns of cluster membership, the cluster members are cross-tabulated by three classifications from the CURDS Functional Regionalization of Britain, which define different dimensions of the spatial structure of the British urban and regional system. This analysis uncovers substantial geographical variations in the nature of the unemployment problem. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of such spatial variations.