The Lefkovitch Matrix of Aedes Aegypti with Rainfall Dependent Model for Eggs Hatching

Abstract

Dengue is known as borne disease that was spread by a species of mosquito which is Aedes aegypti. This disease is considered as a dangerous disease since it can threat human life. Shah Alam city has the high reported dengue cases in Malaysia. Based on this situation, this research was done in order to simulate the population of the mosquito in the city which involved in dengue transmission. A stage-structured of the mosquito life cycle was interpreted into Lefkovitch matrix model which consist of possible rate relating to the mosquito life cycle. The egg hatching rate was set as the main factor which influence the number of mosquito population and it depends on water availability due to rainfall. In this research, the temperature was set as constant because the temperature in Malaysia does not show any significant different compared to the rainfall distribution. The validation of the result was made by doing comparison between the simulations of eggs number with the amount of rainfall in order to see the relationship of the trends for both variables. As a result, the dynamic of dengue cases might be possible related to the trend of rainfall which provide breeding site for the female mosquito to lay eggs which contribute to the increase in the number of mosquito population. However, for the further studies, the researcher should consider other factor such as humidity since it might influence the mosquito life cycle and thus can give more accurate results.