The land-sea system dynamics model with shared socioeconomic pathways can identify the gaps in achieving Sustainable Development Goal 14

Abstract

Sustainable Development Goal 14 (SDG14) identifies development targets directly related to oceans; however, the gaps in achieving SDG14 remain unclear, understanding these gaps is essential in promoting sustainable management of coastal resources. We use the integrated land-sea system dynamics model to explore whether China's coastal area development, resources and ecology are capable of achieving SDG14 under different shared socioeconomic pathways, shock detection is then carried out to find management interventions that potentially contribute to SDG14. We find that SDG14.1, 14.3 and 14.7 can be achieved, but the expansion of mariculture in China's coastal area prevents the realization of SDG14.5 and 14.A unbalanced development of the marine industry will contribute to failing to achieve SDG14.2. Marine fishery is the primary factor in the decoupling between marine industries, and the shocks of SDG14 were mainly caused by changes in fisheries policies and natural disasters. Insights from this research can inform essential information for SDG14 from resilience thinking.