The key role of the leading emerging BRIC markets in the future of global health care

Abstract

Aim: Population aging has profoundly reshaped demographic landscapes in all South Eastern European (SEE) countries. The aim of this study was to provide a thorough comparative intercountry assessment on the speed of population aging in the entire SEE region for the period 1950-2010. Methods: Descriptive observational analysis of long-term trends on core primary and composite indicators of population aging across seventeen countries of the wider SEE region, with panel data sets at a national level. Results: During the past six decades, the entire SEE region has experienced a rapid increase in the median age (from 25.2 years in 1950 to 37.9 years in 2010), with a simultaneous fall of fertility rates for two children per woman (from 3.55 children per each childbearing woman in 1950 to 1.49 in 2010), coupled with significant rise in the population of elderly citizens. The speed of population aging has vastly accelerated (with a 2.5 fold increase) over the past three decades. The percentage of individuals over 65 years has doubled from 7% in 1950 to 14% in 2010. Conclusion: Complex national strategies are needed to cope with the shrinking labour force coupled with the growing proportion of the older population. With all likelihood, population aging will further accelerate in the near future. This profound long-term demographic transition will threaten financial sustainability of current health systems in all SEE countries. The acronym ‘BRIC’ was coined in 2001 to describe the largest and most promising emerging markets outside the established, post-war, high-income economies. The nominal GDP growth rates of Brazil, Russia, India and China outpaced the growth rates of Western Europe, North America and Japan before, during and after the global economic crisis. Th is global phenomenon will have a signifi cant impact on many branches of the economy, including the global demand for and provision of healthcare services. The key driver of this economic development is the existence of an enormous middle class in each of the BRIC countries. Both health insurance coverage and the package of services covered by health insurance plans are expanding in BRIC countries. Equally important is the overall increase in purchasing power in BRIC nations, which has been followed by the increased aff ordability of a vast portion of the medical goods and services that are commonly paid for out-of-pocket by ordinary citizens. When considering the changing landscape of global health care, one should also account for the slow and steady economic growth of most mature, saturated markets. This supports the notion that although consumer demand for health services remains strong in wealthy countries, the true expansion of the global market is occurring elsewhere. All major market analysis agencies have acknowledged this development and urged multinational healthcare companies to focus on emerging markets, and BRICs in particular, if they want to survive. Investment in emerging markets will remain the key to long-term profits and sustainability for pharmaceutical firms and medical equipment manufacturers across the globe for many years to come.