“The ketchup effect”: Challenges in reconciling growth and justice in Northern Sweden's green transition

Abstract

A green transition powered by large-scale, renewable energy is under way in northern Sweden, featuring innovations in fossil-free mining, green steel production, and lithium-ion battery manufacturing. These new initiatives are the most ambitious in decades, envisioned by companies and politicians as a bright, green future for a region haunted by a history of population and economic decline. However, to meet the demands of growing green industries, the north will have to attract an additional 100,000 residents and increase its renewable energy production thirteen-fold. Building on interview data with key stakeholders in Norrbotten and Västerbotten, Sweden's two northernmost counties, this article investigates the drivers behind this green growth and examines the challenges that municipalities and industries will face in achieving it. In the long term, can the demands of a growing green economy be met while delivering justice to the rural and Indigenous Sámi populations of the region who have alternative visions for land use in the north? To answer this question, this article lays out a framework that complements existing approaches to justice in green transitions, identifying potential incongruences between growth and justice. This framework emphasizes the need to take into account four factors – order, timescale, agendas, and actors – which ultimately shape the priorities, possibilities, and justice of green transformation outcomes.