Abstract
Significance The CNSP has worked along three main lines: solidifying loyalty among senior military ranks through a wave of promotions; tapping into mass politics through rallies and populist, anti-French manoeuvres; and drawing support from certain opposition parties and civil society associations. Impacts Severe economic difficulties could pose a longer-term threat to the junta’s survival. Security will likely deteriorate as the junta resorts to harsher tactics against jihadists. The Burkinabe and Malian juntas will not be able to offer much material support to Niger. The stand-off between the junta and ECOWAS could last well into 2024 and possibly beyond as a ‘frozen conflict’.
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