The Joy Before Cooking: Preparing Ourselves to Write a Risk Research Recipe

Abstract

Rather than the conventional practice of compiling a list of interesting research projects and then attempting to make the case that each represents a high priority, I will attempt an approach rooted in decision analysis. The information of greatest value, according to decision theory, is that which most enables us to make more reliable, transparent, and cost-effective decisions. Therefore, I begin with a brief discussion of how and why typical decisions relying on cancer dose-response information can fall short, in an attempt to assess where and how this aspect of risk assessment is “broken” before generating a list of research projects to “fix” it. I discuss the problem of model uncertainty in dose-response assessment, and conclude it is impossible to gauge how valuable it might be to know the correct model until we agree on guidelines for how to make decisions given imperfect information in this regard. After discussing four broad research areas that arguably represent particularly high priorities given this framework, I conclude by identifying three overarching areas of risk assessment and management that, if not given commensurate attention, threaten to render even perfect dose-response information of dubious value.