The joint effects of monsoon rainfall anomalies and natural disasters on food insecurity in Nepal: Implications for a changing climate

Abstract

Background Food insecurity is a key global health challenge that is likely to be exacerbated by climate change. Populations experiencing an increased frequency of extreme weather events may be particularly vulnerable to other threats including natural disasters. In this study, we assessed how exposure to an earthquake followed by monsoon rainfall anomalies impacted household food insecurity in Nepal. Methods We linked 2016 Nepal Demographic and Health Survey data to district level 2015 Nepali earthquake data and rainfall anomalies during the 2015 monsoon season. Using logistic regression models, we exploited variation in exposure to the earthquake and rainfall anomalies to isolate the independent and joint effects of each set of conditions. Results Overall, 32% of households reported moderate/severe food insecurity. Among households not severely impacted by the earthquake, negative and positive rainfall anomalies were associated with a 41%, and 15% predicted probability of moderate/severe food insecurity, respectively. Surprisingly, this relationship was reversed in districts severely impacted by earthquake, with a 21% and 40% predicted probability of moderate/severe food insecurity observed among households experiencing negative and positive rainfall anomalies, respectively. Conclusion Among households not severely impacted by earthquake, negative monsoon rainfall anomalies (lack of rain) likely disrupted agricultural productivity and increased food insecurity. In contrast, we found an increased rate of moderate/severe food insecurity associated with greater rainfall in earthquake affected districts. Rainfall events disproportionately increased landslides in the earthquake impacted areas, which likely damaged hilly roads and limited the distribution of food aid. While Nepal received large amounts of food aid to assist with recovery from the earthquake, extreme weather events such as floods and droughts are unlikely to garner similar levels of assistance. Without sufficient resources for adaptation and recovery, more frequent and severe rainfall anomalies tied to climate change will leave Nepalis increasingly vulnerable to food insecurity.