The JAGUAR Score Predicts 1-Month Disability/Death in Ischemic Stroke Patient Ineligible for Recanalization Therapy

Abstract

Background and PurposeMost available scoring system to predict outcome after acute ischemic stroke (AIS) were established in Western countries. We aimed to develop a simple prediction score of 1-month severe disability/death after onset in AIS patients ineligible for recanalization therapy based on readily and widely obtainable on-admission clinical, laboratory and radiological examinations in Asian developing countries. MethodsUsing the Shiga Stroke Registry, a large population-based registry in Japan, multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted in 1617 AIS patients ineligible for recanalization therapy to yield ß-coefficients of significant predictors of 1-month modified Rankin Scale score of 5-6, which were then multiplied by a specific constant and rounded to nearest integer to develop 0-10 points system. Model discrimination and calibration were evaluated in the original and bootstrapped population. ResultsJapan Coma Scale score (J), age (A), random glucose (G), untimely onset-to-arrival time (U), atrial fibrillation (A), and preadmission dependency status according to the modified Rankin Scale score (R), were recognized as independent predictors of outcome. Each of their β-coefficients was multiplied by 1.3 creating the JAGUAR score. Its area under the curve (95% confidence interval) was .901 (.880- .922) and .901 (.900- .901) in the original and bootstrapped population, respectively. It was found to have good calibration in both study population (P = .27). ConclusionsThe JAGUAR score can be an important prediction tool of severe disability/death in AIS patients ineligible for recanalization therapy that can be applied on admission with no complicated calculation and multimodal neuroimaging necessary, thus suitable for Asian developing countries.